The Covid Effect is a Problem For Democrats
Donald Trump is not going to lose the election because of his handling of the coronavirus. He is going to win because of it. That’s right, Donald Trump is an (evil) political genius.
Does Donald Trump believe that Covid “affects virtually nobody?” Of course not. He told Bob Woodward it’s “deadly stuff.” After his diagnosis, he checked himself right into Walter Reed and had millions of dollars’ worth of unproven therapeutics pumped into his veins. So what’s with the superman game and ripping off the mask? Calling Fauci an “disaster”? Promoting a radiologist to run the Coronavirus task force?
Trump knew from the very beginning of the pandemic that if people were scared to leave their homes, they would not get out and vote for him. So he made being “scared” of the pandemic a partisan game. Connecting “science skepticism” to liberty was a move straight out of the Republican climate change playbook. Only this time, I fear it’s going to hit home at the polls if democrats don’t change our strategy.
Trump’s messaging is designed to get his supporters to the polls. And it’s working.
Pew Research found in September that there is a major split between Democrats and Republicans on the question of whether it will be difficult to vote in this year’s election. 60% of Biden supporters believe it will be difficult, 60% of Trump supporters believe it will be easy.
The messages being circulated by our presidential candidates could not be more different (I paraphrase here):
Trump: “Don’t let Covid-19 dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it.”
Biden: “Wear masks, social distance and stay home.”
Trump: “Go to the polls. Mail-in voting is rigged by Democrats”
Biden: “Register and absentee vote or vote early. Stay safe.”
Absentee voting requires advance planning, forms, and lots of small print (at least in Georgia). Early voting requires looking up a new polling place, with different dates and times of operations. Voting on the day of the election is as easy as showing up to the place you’ve always voted and standing in line, on November 3rd. For people not concerned about getting Coronavirus, election day 2020 is not that different from any other year. For those of us concerned about the spread, trying to avoid the crowd by voting absentee or early is the most prudent solution. It’s also a lot harder.
Trump’s strategy has resulted in a big new voter registration advantage in battleground states.
After months of telling people to “live their lives,” Trump has mobilized volunteers to go door to door to register voters in battleground states. Team Biden has been less focused on traditional Get out the Vote ground operations, in the interest of keeping his volunteers and constituents healthy. Which, yes, I agree was the moral and prudent thing to do.
Unfortunately, voter registration in key battleground states reflects Trump’s ground operation. Pennsylvania has seen 215,000 incremental Republican registrations (Trump won by 44K in the last election). In Florida, Republicans are net up 146,000 registrations. Trump won Florida by 115,000 votes last time. In Arizona, registrations are down slightly, but Democrats are down 17,000 more registrations than Replicans.
Voting in person means different things for different people, depending on where you get your news.
In August, for the Georgia special election, there were at least ten poll workers monitoring four booths in a small windowless room at the library. At least four of the workers were wearing their masks below their noses. The police officer in the lobby was not wearing a mask at all. After six months living in relative isolation, I had to use some deep breathing to calm myself down as I waited inside to vote (I know, I’m neurotic about Covid, but still). Contrast my voting experience with that of someone whose President and news source tell them that 1) the “China Flu” is a hoax, and 2) that “it’s like a flu…it’s very mild.” There is a very real psychological difference between two people who believe different things about the risk associated with voting in person. And unfortunately, and by design, it puts Trump at an advantage.
Democrats and anyone who believes in science: We cannot abandon the polls because we are scared. We are right to be scared, but a second Trump presidency — and two more years of no masks and no school is even scarier.
Now I’m depressed. What can we do to combat Trump’s evil genius?
Knowing is half the battle. Spread the word that voting in person is safe. Remind your friends to put voting on their calendar before it’s too late. And then take a deep breath, put on your mask, grab your kids, and get out there and vote.
If the Biden campaign is reading this, know we want to vote, we really do. Change the emails I’m getting from “send money” to the polls are just as safe for Democrats as they are for Republicans.
